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Monitoring biodiversity change is key to effective conservation policy. While it is difficult to establish in situ biodiversity monitoring programs at broad geographical scales, remote sensing advances allow for near-real time Earth observations that may help with this goal. We combine periodical and freely available remote sensing information describing temperature and precipitation with curated biological information from several groups of animals and plants in the Brazilian Atlantic rainforest to design an indirect remote sensing framework that monitors potential loss and gain of biodiversity in near-real time. Using data from biological collections and information from repeated field inventories, we demonstrate that this framework has the potential to accurately predict trends of biodiversity change for both taxonomic and phylogenetic diversity. The framework identifies areas of potential diversity loss more accurately than areas of species gain, and performs best when applied to broadly distributed groups of animals and plants. 

Abstract Understanding global patterns of genetic diversity is essential for describing, monitoring, and preserving life on Earth. To date, efforts to map macrogenetic patterns have been restricted to vertebrates, which comprise only a small fraction of Earth’s biodiversity. Here, we construct a global map of predicted insect mitochondrial genetic diversity from cytochrome c oxidase subunit 1 sequences, derived from open data. We calculate the mitochondrial genetic diversity mean and genetic diversity evenness of insect assemblages across the globe, identify their environmental correlates, and make predictions of mitochondrial genetic diversity levels in unsampled areas based on environmental data. Using a large single-locus genetic dataset of over 2 million globally distributed and georeferenced mtDNA sequences, we find that mitochondrial genetic diversity evenness follows a quadratic latitudinal gradient peaking in the subtropics. Both mitochondrial genetic diversity mean and evenness positively correlate with seasonally hot temperatures, as well as climate stability since the last glacial maximum. Our models explain 27.9% and 24.0% of the observed variation in mitochondrial genetic diversity mean and evenness in insects, respectively, making an important step towards understanding global biodiversity patterns in the most diverse animal taxon. 

Abstract Quaternary climatic oscillations affected species distributions worldwide, creating cycles of connectivity and isolation that impacted population demography and promoted lineage divergence. These effects have been well studied in temperate regions. Taxa inhabiting mesic montane habitats in tropical ecosystems show high levels of endemism and diversification in the distinct mountain ranges they inhabit; such a pattern has commonly been ascribed to past climatic oscillations, but few phylogeographic studies have tested this hypothesis. Here, we combine ecological niche models of species distributions with molecular data to study phylogeographic patterns in two rodents endemic to the highlands of Costa Rica and western Panama (Reithrodontomys creper and Nephelomys devius). In so doing, we apply a novel approach that incorporates a basic ecological principle: the expected positive relationship between environmental suitability and population abundance. Specifically, we use niche models to predict potential patterns of population connectivity and stability of different suitability levels during climatic extremes of the last glacial–interglacial cycle; we then test these predictions with population genetic analyses of a mitochondrial and a nuclear marker. The detailed predictions arising from the different levels of suitability were moderately to highly congruent with the molecular data depending on the species. Overall, results suggest that in these tropical montane ecosystems, cycles of population connectivity and isolation followed a pattern opposite to that typically described for temperate or lowland tropical ecosystems: namely, higher connectivity during the colder glacials, with isolation in montane refugia during the interglacials, including today. Nevertheless, the individualistic patterns for each species indicate a potentially wide gamut of phylogeographic histories reflecting particularities of their niches. Taken together, this study illustrates how phylogeographic inferences may benefit from niche model outputs that provide more detailed predictions of connectivity and finer characterizations of potential refugia through time. 

Abstract Rapidly changing ecological and social systems currently pose significant societal challenges. Navigating the complexity of social‐ecological change requires approaches able to cope with, and potentially solve, both foreseen and unforeseen societal challenges.The emergent field of convergence addresses the intricacies of such challenges, and is thus relevant to a broad range of interdisciplinary issues.This paper suggests a way to conceptualize convergence research. It discusses how it relates to two major societal challenges (adaptation, transformation), and to the generation of policy‐relevant science. It also points out limitations to the further development of convergence research. A freePlain Language Summarycan be found within the Supporting Information of this article.